Well! In this present scenario of pandemic each and every one of us is just thinking of these two questions only. When will this pandemic end? And how will this pandemic end? It’s not a simple answer and it depends on which expert you are talking to. But the overall medical consensus is that a real end to the outbreak of Covid-19 will have to wait until a vaccine is developed.
But that does raise a host of questions immediately. First, what if we do not have a vaccine, even if in the next few years we do not get one? That is not a remote possibility at all. Also keeping in mind that HIV-AIDS is since last 40 years or so, yet it does not have a vaccine. Secondly, what if the vaccine isn’t really effective? Also, that’s a lot in the realm of probability. In fact, no vaccine is effective 100 per cent. Some of the most common vaccines out there are the measles vaccine, considered to be safe and effective at 79 per cent. People who take two dosages of this vaccine are vaccinated and safe from measles for lifetime.
Say, even if by the mid of 2021 the equivalent vaccine for Covid-19 is produced, the planet will have to strike a jackpot and that will mark the end of the pandemic until the complexities of vaccinating the 8 billion population worldwide are addressed. Looking at this present situation even a vaccine which is 7 per cent effective vaccine would work. An infectious disease expert of US, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said he would now settle for a 70-75 per cent effective vaccine.
The problem is that the corona virus could mutate in ways that would theoretically make any new vaccine useless after six-month period. We know the flu shots that millions of Americans take each year which lasts only for a season, and people are encouraged to take it every year. In fact, the vaccine is even called the “seasonal flu” vaccine. Even if a vaccine is produced the virus would spread from host to host year after year so, social distancing will cause the virus to circulate less and all the precautions are to be continued for a few years now. So, social distancing would become a mandatory norm in the society now.